A recent study (Forzieri, Giovanni et al., 2017) assessed the risk of weather-related hazards to the European population until 2100.
The researchers assessed the risk of weather-related hazards to the European population in terms of annual numbers of deaths in 30 year intervals relative to the reference period (1981–2010) up to the year 2100 (2011–40, 2041–70, and 2071–100) by combining disaster records with high-resolution hazard and demographic projections in a prognostic modelling framework. The study is focused on the hazards with the greatest impacts—heatwaves and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods, and windstorms—and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions.
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Scientists found that weather-related disasters could affect about two-thirds of the European population annually by the year 2100 (351 million people exposed per year [uncertainty range 126 million to 523 million] during the period 2071–100) compared with 5% during the reference period (1981–2010; 25 million people exposed per year).
[Continue to full text of the open-source paper here]
Source: The Lancet Planetary Health, http://www.thelancet.com/
